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#Uncertainty
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
Don't think there's been any point in the pandemic at which there's been such a confusing mix of good *and* bad COVID news. I actually think the good > bad,
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Kate Starbird
katestarbird
Concerned about #Election2020. One thing we need to communicate is that, initially, there will be substantial uncertainty. We probably won’t know the results that night (or even the next few
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TheValuesVoter
TheValuesVoter
Feeling alone because you are surrounded by Trump supporters and you feel like you’re the only one who doesn’t support him?Comfort yourself with some stats. You are certainly not alone.
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Pete Kraft
GENES_PK
Interesting Q during discussion of @nilanjan10c's #HarvardPQG20 keynote this morning: how do we characterize uncertainty in individual disease risk estimates? /thread @bpasaniuc @amitvkhera I think there are two separate kinds
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Christian Bokhove
cbokhove
Over the years on twitter, one rather comical 'debate' situation I've seen is people asking whether I have ever considered the option I might be wrong. Now, of course, sometimes
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ロコちゃん - hereticalupdate.substack.com
RokoMijicUK
Shower thought idea: a Dominant Assurance Contract for developing immortality.That's basically kickstarter for a cure for aging, except with an added incentive: if the kickstarter fails, everyone who contributed gets
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Natalie E. Dean, PhD
nataliexdean
Warning - some in-the-weeds tweets about vaccine efficacy trials, new strains, and decision making under uncertainty. I offer more questions than answers, but hopefully it can generate some discussion...1/6 For
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Abel Gustafson, PhD
AbelGustafson
In #scicomm, does communicating uncertainty have negative effects?Our review [now out in @SciPublic] finds that in most cases, the answer is NO. But there is an important exception where it
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Dr Michelle Ananda-Rajah
rajah_mich
There are a lot of stats re efficacy flying around for the AZ vaccine. Lets go thru them:-70.4% is a pooled estimate from the low dose & standard dose groups,Dec
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Justin Carstens
jncar76
.@gelliottmorris and @NateSilver538 have posted conditional probability tables of their models vs. the national popular vote margin. Very useful! But, these tables do not account for national polling average uncertainty.Accounting
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MPI for Human Development
mpib_berlin
High sugar intake plays a critical role in today’s #obesity epidemic. An important reason for this is that people don’t understand the ingredients of processed food. (1/6) .@MDallacker, Ralph Hertwig,
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Kate Starbird
katestarbird
On election night, there’s going to be uncertainty & anxiety (about the results). We are really vulnerable during those times to misinformation and disinformation. Don’t fall for narratives that seek
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Natalie Jackson
nataliemj10
Here's what you should do with any horserace poll result for the next 8 weeks:-See that it says "Biden X%, Trump Y%"-Automatically assume those are fuzzy estimates, not precise %
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Chelsea Youth
chelseayouth
The question is less 'what's going to happen to Mount/Abraham/James/CHO etc?' in the next 6-12 months, it's 'what's going to happen to Gallagher/Guehi/Anjorin/Bate/Livramento/Lawrence?' in that time, and regardle
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Kate Marvel
DrKateMarvel
NEW SCIENCE ALERT! We have a huge new assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity out today: https://bit.ly/2BiDFKI The main question: how hot is it going to get? Scientists don’t know! (YOU
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techbronyc
techbronyc
Your life is comprised of two things, chaos and stability. Chaos is uncertainty. It’s not having a consistent paycheck, starting a company, searching for a partner.Stability is certainty. Having a
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