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NEW SCIENCE ALERT! We have a huge new assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity out today: https://bit.ly/2BiDFKI
The main question: how hot is it going to get? Scientists donât know! (YOU HAD ONE JOB, SCIENTISTS)
We measure this using "equilibrium climate sensitivity".
ECS = if you suddenly double atmospheric CO2 from its pre-Industrial Revolution value and let the climate adjust, how much does it warm? This study narrows the uncertainty range in this number.
ECS = if you suddenly double atmospheric CO2 from its pre-Industrial Revolution value and let the climate adjust, how much does it warm? This study narrows the uncertainty range in this number.
How should we think about uncertainty? Remember, uncertainty is not ignorance! We donât know everything, but we donât know nothing.
A lot of people think climate uncertainty means something like this
This is the right way to think about climate uncertainty
Using multiple lines of evidence, we find:
Good news: itâs unlikely ECS is super high (about a 6-18% chance itâs above 4.5C)
Bad news: itâs even more unlikely ECS is super low (less than a 5% chance itâs below 2C)
Good news: itâs unlikely ECS is super high (about a 6-18% chance itâs above 4.5C)Bad news: itâs even more unlikely ECS is super low (less than a 5% chance itâs below 2C)
My takeaways:
1. Nature is not going to save us from climate change.
2. Weâre not doomed.
3. We should probably stop acting like ECS is zero.
1. Nature is not going to save us from climate change.
2. Weâre not doomed.
3. We should probably stop acting like ECS is zero.
