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Nate Silver
NateSilver538
Don't think there's been any point in the pandemic at which there's been such a confusing mix of good *and* bad COVID news. I actually think the good > bad,
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Yeah, so say we want to get 75% of the population vaccinated by Sept. 22 (last day of summer). That seems optimistic because of vaccine hesitancy and the fact that
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Another underappreciated distinction is between "essential" and "frontline" workers, with frontline defined as people who can't perform their jobs from home. The case for frontline workers getting vaccine priority &g
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I am sorry to be a broken record, but it is completely indefensible that ACIP presents data like this showing that age is a FAR bigger risk factor for dying
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The other key point here (as @mattyglesias pointed out in his newsletter today) is that both "pre-existing conditions" and "essential workers" are highly amorphous categories that will be gamed (especially
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This seems like a fairly realistic set of assumptions for what to expect on the COVID-19 front next year as vaccinations begin to roll out. Things start to get notably
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"SCOTUS will steal the election for Trump" is one of those takes that was popular (for different reasons) both among a certain type of liberal and on the Trumpy right
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Perhaps a bit far-fetched, but Romney actually has a decent amount of leverage, if he and one of Collins, Murkowski, etc. threatened to become "Independent Republicans" or what have you
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I suspect this increase in willingness to take vaccines is due to the increased spread of COVID—people looking for the light at the end of the tunnel. There will probably
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Gonna preface this by again reminding you that I'm not a pollster and instead my job is to assess how accurate polls are and build models of what the errors
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One reason "shy Trump voters" doesn't make as much sense as you'd think as an explanation for polling errors this year is that Republican candidates for Congress generally outperformed their
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So, I am open-minded but not super persuaded by this. There are a handful of counties to have counted provisional ballots so far and those ballots indeed went for Trump,
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