#Infections

Ruminator Dan

RuminatorDan

THE TYRANNY OF "KEEPING R BELOW 1"UK Health secretary comments that the goal is to bring R below 1 & keep it there until a vaccine.A Sisyphean task.Impossible.Not due to

David Paton

cricketwyvern

I think @ChrisGiles_ is basing his point on schools on the fact that prevalence is down more amongst school age children than 70+.But if you look at the timing of

IM

ianmSC

So Penn State does a study showing 8.7 million infections in March, which means lockdowns were months too late to matter. CDC says cases 10x higher than reported, so ~24

Nora Loreto

NoLore

Here is a monster thread on ongoing outbreaks in Ontario, by facility. Why is this important? Well, it shows where things are not in control and (in a rational society)

Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH

ashishkjha

About 3,000 Americans are dying every dayThey reflect infections from mid-JanuaryGiven dropping infections since, we'll see dramatic drops in deaths over next few weeksThis is greatIt'll also tempt policymakers to

Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH

ashishkjha

Biden team won't have formal power to manage COVID until January 2071 daysBetween now and then, we may see additional 100,00 deaths from COVIDIts a horribly high numberWhy do I

Tory Fibs

ToryFibs

Thread. Nothing pre-planned here just some preliminary thoughts on the dataset I’ve built showing 643 UK Schools with Coronavirus infections. Apologies in advance if it lacks coherency. Just thought it

Dr Zoë Hyde

DrZoeHyde

The latest round of random testing in the UK shows both children and teenagers are now more likely to be infected than adults.1 in 48 teenagers and 1 in 58

Stephen Reicher

ReicherStephen

Second, due to the broad definition of 'key worker' there are five times more children in school compared to the first wave. Many classrooms are more than half full. And

David Paton

cricketwyvern

Put to one side for a moment whether or not you believe the current lockdown to be justified. It is simply unconscionable for scientists & politicians to be appearing in

Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH

ashishkjha

Seeing stories of vaccinated folks getting COVID?Yup. Not newsHow common is this? Quick math says pretty commonProbably 60-100 fully vaccinated folks getting infected dailySo infections no surpriseWe should instead focus

barrysmyth

barrysmyth

Things are pretty grim at the moment. Ireland's 7d rolling average of confirmed #covid cases, per 100k of population, leads the world after we were at the other end of

Toby Young

toadmeister

1/ I’ve been thinking about this 4,000-deaths-a-day claim made by Whitty and Vallance on Saturday. If we assume an IFR of 0.25% (Ioannidis), that means there would have to be

David Paton

cricketwyvern

Another drop in the Zoe estimate of English new cases: now down 20% from peak, London 37%.Estimated R for England has fallen below 1. Data up to 10 Jan so

Diego Bassani, PhD 🏠😷

DGBassani

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission among Marine Recruits during Quarantine | NEJMhttps://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2029717#.X6yTHiwpVmM.twitter This study uses molecular phylogenetic analysis to confirm that the infections happened within th

George Yarrow

george_yarrow

Assessing the effects of regulations is a tricky business & there was a time when the Cabinet Office produced some rather sophisticated guidance manuals on how to go about it.

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