1/ I’ve been thinking about this 4,000-deaths-a-day claim made by Whitty and Vallance on Saturday.

If we assume an IFR of 0.25% (Ioannidis), that means there would have to be 1.6 million new infections/day to result in 4,000 deaths/day, or 11.2 new infections/week.

2/ The population of England is ~56 million, but if we assume 7% have antibodies and 30% have prior immunity (T-cells, etc.), that leaves 63% of the population that’s susceptible, or ~35 million.

35 million divided by 11.2 million is ~3.

3/ So even in the incredibly unlikely event of daily deaths climbing to 4,000/day (3x higher than the peak rate in Brazil, which has 3x pop of the UK and didn’t lockdown), the pandemic would be over in three weeks.