Seeing stories of vaccinated folks getting COVID?

Yup. Not news

How common is this? Quick math says pretty common

Probably 60-100 fully vaccinated folks getting infected daily

So infections no surprise

We should instead focus on hospitalizations & deaths

Thread

h/t @jflier https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1360993235141877762

Back of envelope math:

Over past month 4.2M have received both doses while 5.1M Americans have become infected

If you subject each fully vaccinated person to that day's daily infection risk:

We'd expect 8K-10K infections in that group if vaccines didn't work at all.

2/4

If vaccines offered 95% protection

We'd expect 500+ infections

Lots of hospitalizations

May be even some deaths

Headline news of a few infections expected

So what am I look for?

How many fully vaccinated folks end up hospitalized or dead from COVID

3/5

I expect most infections in vaccinated folks to be mild

So far, of hundreds of fully vaccinated folks have likely been infected

Wee haven’t heard about many hospitalizations or deaths in this group

Suggesting these vaccines are working superbly preventing severe disease

4/5

Bottom line

Expect some vaccinated folks to get infected

Let's track how many end up hospitalized or even dead

Wouldn't be surprised if some do

Because nothing in life is 100%

But so far, for preventing severe disease, these vaccines are pretty darn close

End