THE TYRANNY OF "KEEPING R BELOW 1"

UK Health secretary comments that the goal is to bring R below 1 & keep it there until a vaccine.

A Sisyphean task.

Impossible.

Not due to the virus, but due to a misunderstanding of logic, science & maths.
Infections rising: R > 1

Infections falling: R < 1

This would seem simple. As the epidemic grows R is above 1. As it wanes, R is below 1.

But infections cannot fall forever.
When the level of infections has fallen to very low levels (or even zero) & a large proportion of the infections detected are false positives, then the infection figures will appear fairly stable; albeit with some noise, which is a problem at lower numbers.
Since infections are stable, even if this is because they are mostly gone, R cannot remain below 1.

R will therefore rise from below 1 to 1.

& there it will remain, with some movement due to noise.

Indefinitely.

To demand that R remains below 1 is to make success impossible.
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