About 3,000 Americans are dying every day
They reflect infections from mid-January
Given dropping infections since, we'll see dramatic drops in deaths over next few weeks
This is great
It'll also tempt policymakers to relax restrictions...just at riskiest moment
Thread
They reflect infections from mid-January
Given dropping infections since, we'll see dramatic drops in deaths over next few weeks
This is great
It'll also tempt policymakers to relax restrictions...just at riskiest moment
Thread
Current 7-day moving avg about 3000 deaths/day
In a week, that'll be down to 2500
2000 daily deaths a week later
And 1500 a week after that..3 weeks from now
Best guess based on infection numbers
Nearly 20K fewer deaths over next 3 wks than if infections had stayed flat
2/4
In a week, that'll be down to 2500
2000 daily deaths a week later
And 1500 a week after that..3 weeks from now
Best guess based on infection numbers
Nearly 20K fewer deaths over next 3 wks than if infections had stayed flat
2/4
And if infections continue falling, we might even get under a 1000 deaths a day by Mid March!
Which would be amazing!
With one challenge:
Dropping deaths will put pressure on political leaders to substantially lift restrictions
Just as the variants will be taking off
3/4
Which would be amazing!
With one challenge:
Dropping deaths will put pressure on political leaders to substantially lift restrictions
Just as the variants will be taking off
3/4
And disinformationists will argue variants are benign because deaths are falling
So what should we do over next month?
Remember life will be much better by summer
Be thankful of falling deaths now
And stay the course on public health measures until more folks vaccinated
Fin
So what should we do over next month?
Remember life will be much better by summer
Be thankful of falling deaths now
And stay the course on public health measures until more folks vaccinated
Fin