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David Paton
cricketwyvern
Two things stand out from the data & evidence:1. When there is a surge in infections, cases eventually come down whether or not there is a lockdown/significant restrictions.2. Lockdowns/many restrictions
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Restrictions were imposed to stop health services being overwhelmed.Govt policy on reopening now seems to be based on an assumption that opening 1 thing inevitably increases transmission & so something
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I think @ChrisGiles_ is basing his point on schools on the fact that prevalence is down more amongst school age children than 70+.But if you look at the timing of
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This is an interesting response by @cjsnowdon to @toadmeister but many of the examples he cites do not support his argument that infections start falling after lockdowns.Here’s a closer look
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One reason I am sceptical about impact of Tier 3&4 is decline in infections from end-Dec is part of the normal longer run trend we see v. often: when cases
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A self-proclaimed fact checking website run by a Conservative MP & Govt policy advisor still states “Cases were not falling before the January 2021 lockdown”. They refer to 3 pieces
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Two things annoy me a little in the school debate. First, well-intentioned comments like "schools should be last to close & first to open".We never debate when supermarkets should close.
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In his recent article, @cjsnowdon claims that England's November lockdown was a good example of lockdown effectiveness. Let’s look at that claim using the ONS death-by-date registration data which have
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Update to Sweden.Now Christmas testing/reporting effects have worked through, we can see a decrease in positive tests of > 40% since peak just before Christmas.ICUs also coming down steadily. We
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Some people have been worried about high numbers of pupils attending schools since 4 Jan.Children are (generally) not at risk of serious illness but concern was new variant wd cause
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This is an interesting read by @cjsnowdon but not sure his examples necessarily support his case.Take Ireland: Level 5 lockdown restrictions (pubs, cafes hairdressers shut) started on 24 Dec. The
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Another drop in the Zoe estimate of English new cases: now down 20% from peak, London 37%.Estimated R for England has fallen below 1. Data up to 10 Jan so
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