#Infections

Ruminator Dan

RuminatorDan

_England & Wales Autumn Covid deaths show regional heterogeneity. London, in particular, is interesting_London's more severe & earlier spring growth may well explain why it has, to date, seen less

Moebius Stripper

moebius_strip

Re reports of a COVID-19 vaccine that was over 90% effective in experimental trials. An explanation: a virus lives or dies based on how effectively it's transmitted. If each infected

David Paton

cricketwyvern

Good question! Of course bad news sells for the media but it seems to be Govt strategy not to focus on any good news at the moment.Same in April when

Adam Kucharski

AdamJKucharski

If the reproduction number drops below 1, an epidemic won't disappear immediately. But how many additional infections will there be before it declines to very low levels? Fortunately there's a

Cab Davidson #FBPE

gnomeicide

We've had 3,871,825 Covid-19 cases recorded in the UK. Of which 112,660 died. Crudely thats a mortality rate of 2.91%. World beating, we're converting more infections into deaths than any

Trevor Bedford

trvrb

A follow up to yesterday's controversial thread on societal behavior, population immunity and Rt to specifically address issue of what fraction of the population in Florida, Texas and Arizona may

Nabiha

nabihazaman223

Our group decided to compare the susceptibility of S. marcescens to beta-lactam and aminoglycoside antibiotics. Nosocomial infections can be caused by S. marcescens which is why it is important to

David Paton

cricketwyvern

The MRC mid-point forecast (made on 12th Oct) was for 465 deaths / day by 26 Oct & a range of 240-690.PHE data are now fairly complete for 26 Oct

MadLori

madlori

Okay, vaccine news. I'm going to try and break down what's happening based on the reports. I've read three writeups of Pfizer's release and here's what

Lauren McGaughy

lmcgaughy

1/NEW: For months, outbreaks in some Texas prisons have not been included in the total statewide tallies.The state health agency is now including more than 1,500 inmate infections dating back

Wes Pegden

WesPegden

One possibility I have not seen discussed much is that B.1.1.7 might appear more transmissible just by having a slightly different susceptibility profile than "wild-type" strains.A thread on how this

Murad Banaji

muradbanaji

Mumbai #COVID19 update. The epidemic refuses to die away. The city is still generating about 500 cases daily. That's almost 5% of the national total, and despite many restrictions still

Justin Feldman

jfeldman_epi

A quick analysis of Texas schools to illustrate a couple points about symptomatic covid testing and contact tracing data:(1) Many cases never get traced(2) Many infections don't become "cases" because

David Paton

cricketwyvern

One reason I am sceptical about impact of Tier 3&4 is decline in infections from end-Dec is part of the normal longer run trend we see v. often: when cases

Gearoid Reidy

GearoidReidy

Prof. Omi, the head of the current panel of experts advising the government on the coronavirus, says the effective reproduction number of the virus in Tokyo has risen to 1.3.

Tim Colbourn

timcolbourn

With ~700,000 people infected with #COVID19 in the UK when new restrictions came in on 5th Nov it will be v hard to get down to a manageable level by

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