Another drop in the Zoe estimate of English new cases: now down 20% from peak, London 37%.

Estimated R for England has fallen below 1. Data up to 10 Jan so almost all based on infections *before* national lockdown. https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1349370601987780608

The trend was clear in the data even when the national LD was announced. Those on SAGE & in Cabinet who pushed for the new national lockdown on the grounds the data was showing it was the only way to reduce infections should need to explain themselves.

Although the case for national LD has gone (at least on grounds it was only way to reduce infections), you might be tempted to argue the drop only happened because of T4. But beware:

T3 Yorks peaked on 3 Jan (infections even earlier), same as T4 SE (though SE has fallen faster).

Note the fall in Zoe estimates for Yorkshire is consistent with positivity and positive test data.

If you want to argue the drop only happened because of school holidays (& so they needed to stay shut) also beware:

@dontbetyet shows triage data for U19s stopped decreasing during hols but has actually fallen since schools reopened for some pupils from 4 Jan.