#Seasonality

facts&effects

EffectsFacts

0/17 Sweden. New series of weekly updated tables to track whether the increase in mortality this winter is in line with respiratory illness seasonality, or something extraordinary. So far (week

Cem Karsan 🥐

jam_croissant

1/x The outlook was indeed promising yesterday... As posted, we were able to monetize our long deltas & short Vega this morning at the 3508.5 level. Good thing, b/c, as

Prof Francois Balloux

BallouxFrancois

I should be qualified to comment on the covid-19 pandemic. I'm a computational/system biologist working on infectious diseases and have spent five years in a world class 'pandemic response modelling'

Raoul Pal

RaoulGMI

Still #irresponsbilylong but feeling rather responsible now! Pro tip - scrunch the Y-axis for perspective 1/ And use regression channel for perspective... And seasonality for conviction... And @100trillionUSD for framework...

Cem Karsan 🥐

jam_croissant

1/x OUR ANTICIPATED PFIZER NEWS CAME SOON POST ELECTION, AS PREDICTED ... But, as is often the case, positive prospective news can serve the market better as a rumor then

el gato malo

boriquagato

one of the big questions on covid right now is "did we hit herd immunity or is this just seasonality?"i think we have, in most places, hit herd immunity and

Daniel Kotzin

danielkotzin

1/ Lockdowns were ordered last March because “exponential” growth in Covid cases was going to overwhelm hospitals. Within months, if not weeks, it was clear that all of the modeling

Ernie Tedeschi

ernietedeschi

Ahead of the ADP release at 8:15am, a brief thread on what high-frequency private data is suggesting we'll get for November payrolls, why it might be right, and why it

Philip Watson

PhilipWatson_

"First Minister Arlene Foster has said there are few options left to curb the crisis, apart from a possible curfew."When your actions don't seem to be working, you change them,

Ben Kentish

BenKentish

There’s a new narrative that says the U.K undoubtedly unlocked too quickly last summer and I’m not sure it’s borne out by facts. Schools went back in early June, shops

TT

Infrequentvalue

95% of people including 99.99% of "experts" are unwilling to think about why some people in Wuhan collapsed dead on the street to c19, while seemingly catching themselves.All on video,

Wes Pegden

WesPegden

Is there a seasonal component to the COVID-19 mortality rate?A thread with some figures with @ChikinaLab on what seems to be a question of underestimated importance. 1/8Slightly longer version

Trevor Bedford

trvrb

I know all the discussion is about a possible "2nd wave", but I've found this odd given that we haven't finished the first one. I would think quite possible that,

Ryan Hisner

LongDesertTrain

1/ Is the recent drop in US Covid cases due to an increased percentage of the population having immunity from previous infection or is it due to behavioral changes? In

Trevor Bedford

trvrb

After a ~2 month plateau from mid-Nov to mid-Jan, the US #COVID19 epidemic has undergone a steady week after week decline and is now back to daily case counts last

Todd Campbell

ebcapital

1/10I’ve been helping money managers since ’97, so I’ve been asked what I look for in a stock. Here’s the methodology I use to:•"Fish in the right pond" by spotting

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