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Wes Pegden
WesPegden
Quick thread on evidence being presented that schools are main drivers of transmission (and here: primary aged children just as much!).There really are papers claiming to show some of these
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ZeroCOVID discussions have made contact-tracing-as-an-intervention a hot topic again. In particular, a contention frequently heard is that if we "get cases low" and then "build up the tracing system" test+trace
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Is there a seasonal component to the COVID-19 mortality rate?A thread with some figures with @ChikinaLab on what seems to be a question of underestimated importance. 1/8Slightly longer version
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I would like to understand why, as states blunder by opening vaccine access to half or more of their population despite scarcity (ensuring that many older and vulnerable populations will
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The new release of the randomized ONS infection survey shows the advantage of the variant B.1.1.7 strain has evaporated in regions (London, East, Southeast) where it reached greatest prevalence.[R_0 for
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This thread from December pointed out that convenience samples are not suitable for any but the coarsest estimates of prevalence, and that the popularity of a prevalence study like this
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One possibility I have not seen discussed much is that B.1.1.7 might appear more transmissible just by having a slightly different susceptibility profile than "wild-type" strains.A thread on how this
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Widely popular in in the spring, I don't actually think these early remarks from Mike Ryan resonate today.Coming in March after cases declined in several Asian countries, they suggested to
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There's been a lot of controversy surrounding vaccine prioritization. There are various sides to this issue and it's easy for them to get conflated in a way which confuses the
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It seems like the fundamental fallacy underpinning misguided mitigation strategies is prioritizing the elimination of the highest-risk interactions ever experienced by the lowest-risk (most privileged) people.1/12 Through the lens of
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The following study is being widely shared as definitive evidence that 76% of the population of Manaus, Brazil, became infected with COVID-19.Quick thread on placing this study in the proper
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In my view, the biggest problem of perception as it pertains to COVID response is not misunderstanding the scale of lost life, suffering, and hardship caused by the pandemic, but
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