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Trevor Bedford
trvrb
After a ~2 month plateau from mid-Nov to mid-Jan, the US #COVID19 epidemic has undergone a steady week after week decline and is now back to daily case counts last
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With emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 and initial evidence of antigenic evolution, I've seen comparisons here to seasonal influenza and its rate of evolution. In this thread, I want to ground
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Important new study by Wibmer et al (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.18.427166v1) of neutralization by convalescent sera on wildtype vs 501Y.V2 variant viruses circulating in South Africa. It shows that mutations present in
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At this point, the countries with most genomic data to analyze spread of the variant virus belonging to https://cov-lineages.org B.1.1.7 lineage or @nextstrain clade 20I/501Y.V1 are the UK, Denmark and
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After ~10 months of relative quiescence we've started to see some striking evolution of SARS-CoV-2 with a repeated evolutionary pattern in the SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern emerging from the UK,
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With data that has emerged in the last week, I'm now 80-90% convinced that infections by the UK variant virus (Pangolin lineage B.1.1.7, @nextstrain clade 20B/501Y.V1) result in, on average,
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Given that the US has not detected SARS-CoV-2 variant viruses 501Y.V1 or 501Y.V2, what bounds can we place on their current frequency in the US based on sample counts? 1/12https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1341446447045087232
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Given the large discrepancy in specimens collected in Dec that were sequenced and shared between the US and the UK, I wanted to follow up on the relative quality of
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Following up on general thoughts on antigenic drift of #COVID19 from this weekend, I wanted to discuss what we know about the new variant of SARS-CoV-2 thats emerged in the
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First, some background. RNA viruses all evolve extremely rapidly, but some like influenza are able to accept mutations to their surface proteins in such a way that they can partially
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With #COVID19 vaccine efficacy of ~95%, I'm looking forward to vaccine distribution in 2021 bringing the pandemic under control. However, I'm concerned that we'll see antigenic drift of SARS-CoV-2 and
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There has been a significant question about the degree to which Thanksgiving holiday and associated travel and social gatherings may have contributed to transmission of #COVID19. Here I try to
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