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Ernie Tedeschi
ernietedeschi
Ugh. Jobs Day, December 2020 Interestingly, with the +135,000 revisions to Oct and Nov, employment was "only" down -5,000 from what we thought before. With today's -140,000 payroll read, the
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Here's a pre-buttal on some takes we're sure to see on this new stimulus package:1. Stimulus checks are only around 1/5 of the total bill.2. UI in America typically pays
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Ahead of the ADP release at 8:15am, a brief thread on what high-frequency private data is suggesting we'll get for November payrolls, why it might be right, and why it
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On the one hand, the US recovery so far has been durably positive & modestOn the other hand, b/t the COVID surge, the cold winter weather, exhausted household savings, the
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#CPSMicrodataDay A few interesting nuggets. Wage growth is difficult to get a handle on right now, since official data uses averages that have been skewed by low wage job losses.
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We need to be sober and rigorous when evaluating the positives and negatives of emergency UI, and not be wooed by simple, emotional stories. There's no evidence in the data
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