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#Polls
Manu Raju
mkraju
GA · Polls close: 7:00 pm ET · Final day for mail ballots to arrive: 11/3 NC · Polls close: 7:30 pm ET · Final day for mail ballots to arrive: 11/12 OHIO ·
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Rogue Melania🍸🍸🍸
RogueFirstLady
New polls from several key state is devastate for The Donald: Florida likely voters: Joe 51% to The Donald 40%. If the Joe win the Florida is all over. Arizona
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John-Erik Koslosky
JE_Koslosky
"Polls in 2016, perhaps skewed by those who would not admit they were voting for Trump, showed he would lose to Hillary Clinton." - This is not a very good
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Matt Glantz
MattGlantz
Finally got through to a friend of mine who is a bigtime "Mass Voter Fraud" guy. He is also a math guy. So, if you are a math guy/girl this
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Michael Shepherd
mikeshepherdME
Love Nuzzi, but the data journalism vs. narrative journalism wars are always terrible. They support each other!https://twitter.com/olivianuzzi/status/1324136852425744384 “The polls were bad” is true. The alternative is not, “All the a
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James Kosur
JamesKosur
Don't listen to a single Fox News poll saying Biden is taking a huge lead over Donald Trump. Assume any Biden-favoring polls that Fox News releases through November 3 is
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JW Mason
JWMason1
The exit polls are a nice example of collider bias, an important and ubiquitous but not very intuitive problem in statistics. Collider bias means this: If a and b both
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Nate Silver
NateSilver538
At the risk of restarting the MRP wars: For the last 3 models I've designed (midterms, primaries, now revisiting stuff for the general) trying to impute how a state will
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Scientist Marcus
MarcusHUSA
The GA polls are mostly going to show a seesaw tie until the end. Here’s why I think that both Republicans will pull it out, perhaps more easily than expected1)
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PublicPolicyPolling
ppppolls
Our new North Carolina poll finds voters want a cautious approach to reopening the state. 60% think the virus is getting worse in the state to only 10% who think
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"No teams" (≠ neutral) Indy
NoTeamsIndy
@JoeBiden v. Trump 9/6 UPDATENat'l: Biden +7.0/Clinton +3.1EC: Biden 289-125 (+174) / Clinton 251-164 (+87)Biden 50%+ in NINE battlegrounds, Clinton ZERO (highest 45.2%, 13 under 42%)No convention bounces in nat'l
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(((Harry Enten)))
ForecasterEnten
I wrote this piece on the eve of the 2016 election. Trump had a real chance of winning based on the polls. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ Where we are right now is just
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Raffi Melkonian
RMFifthCircuit
A campaign story. I signed up to work for McCain's campaign. At the time, I was a very junior lawyer. They sent me to Maine on election day to do
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Daniel Finn
DanFinn95
A few of Nandy's "sister parties" whose views apparently carry so much weight:Germany: on 14 to 15% in the polls (from 38.5% in 2002).France: 2.5 to 5% for the next
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TheValuesVoter
TheValuesVoter
Here are some maps based on comparing the exit polls from 2020 versus the exit polls from 2016. https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-pollshttps://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president(Not all states are polled)1)
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Matthew Yglesias
mattyglesias
I beg everyone please do not write takes based off the detailed internals of unweighted exit pollshttps://twitter.com/CharlesMBlow/status/1323982596980826113 The way this works is that they have too few older white people
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