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Here are some maps based on comparing the exit polls from 2020 versus the exit polls from 2016.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president
(Not all states are polled)
1) States where Trump did not win with white voters.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president
(Not all states are polled)
1) States where Trump did not win with white voters.
2) States where Trump lost white voters in 2020 after having won them in the state in 2016.
3) States where Trump's margin with white voters decreased by 10 points or more compared to 2016, regardless of whether or not he ultimately won this voter group in the state.
4) States where Trump lost Independent voters.
5) States where Trump lost Independent voters in 2020 after having won them in the state in 2016.
6) States where Trump's margin among Independent voters shrunk by 10 points or more relative to 2016, regardless of whether or not Trump won this voter group in the state.
In the five states which Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2016:
Arizona:
Trump's margin with Independents fell by 12 points. He lost Independents in AZ in 2020 after having won them in AZ in 2016.
His margin among white voters in AZ fell by 8 points, when comparing the exit polls.
Arizona:
Trump's margin with Independents fell by 12 points. He lost Independents in AZ in 2020 after having won them in AZ in 2016.
His margin among white voters in AZ fell by 8 points, when comparing the exit polls.
Georgia:
Trump's margin with Independents fell by 20 points. He lost Independents in GA in 2020 after having won them in GA in 2016.
His margin among white voters in GA fell by 15 points when comparing the exit polls.
Trump's margin with Independents fell by 20 points. He lost Independents in GA in 2020 after having won them in GA in 2016.
His margin among white voters in GA fell by 15 points when comparing the exit polls.
Michigan:
Trump's margin with Independents fell by 22 points. He lost Independents in MI in 2020 after having won them in MI in 2016.
His margin among white voters in MI fell by 10 points when comparing the exit polls.
Trump's margin with Independents fell by 22 points. He lost Independents in MI in 2020 after having won them in MI in 2016.
His margin among white voters in MI fell by 10 points when comparing the exit polls.
Pennsylvania:
Trump's margin with Independents fell by 15 points. He lost Independents in PA in 2020 after having won them in PA in 2016.
His margin among white voters in PA fell by 1 point when comparing the exit polls.
Trump's margin with Independents fell by 15 points. He lost Independents in PA in 2020 after having won them in PA in 2016.
His margin among white voters in PA fell by 1 point when comparing the exit polls.
Wisconsin:
Trump's margin with Independents fell by 22 points. He lost Independents in WI in 2020 after having won them in WI in 2016.
His margin among white voters in WI fell by 5 points when comparing the exit polls.
Trump's margin with Independents fell by 22 points. He lost Independents in WI in 2020 after having won them in WI in 2016.
His margin among white voters in WI fell by 5 points when comparing the exit polls.
Trump won the electoral college in 2016 by way of a total of 77,774 votes across Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
If you took the 2016 election results and took away this level of support from white voters and Independents, would anyone THINK he could still win?
If you took the 2016 election results and took away this level of support from white voters and Independents, would anyone THINK he could still win?
