I wrote this piece on the eve of the 2016 election. Trump had a real chance of winning based on the polls. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ Where we are right now is just not even anywhere in the same ballpark. (1/?)
Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton

Even at the end of a presidential campaign, polls don’t perfectly predict the final margin in the election. Sometimes the final polls are quite accurate. An ave…

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/
For one thing, Trump's deficit to Biden like 2.5 to 3 times as much in the national polls. For another, the economy suggests Biden's gonna win, while it said no such thing about Clinton... Now this could change (4 months), but yea Biden's well ahead.
Like use simple sense... You have a pandemic with mounting cases... An economy that by an average of metrics is below average... Plus, Trump is losing on race relations... This ain't a hard equation right now.
Side note: Pretty much every mistake I've made in this business can be tied to trusting the polls too little, not trusting them too much.
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