Polling that summer showed the race a dead heat. (via 538)
The polling average widened, then narrowed again as we headed into fall. (also via 538)
So, with just about 1.5 months to go, it looked like a super-close race. More than that, there were still a lot of undecideds.
The problem isn't that polls mislead us. It's that they are so routinely treated as something they're not — indications that someone is "winning" or that strong momentum is building based on relatively small variations in polls with MOEs.
Journalists and analysts should strive to do a much better job understanding and explaining polls, not dismissing them.
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