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@JoeBiden v. Trump 9/6 UPDATE
Nat'l: Biden +7.0/Clinton +3.1
EC: Biden 289-125 (+174) / Clinton 251-164 (+87)
Biden 50%+ in NINE battlegrounds, Clinton ZERO (highest 45.2%, 13 under 42%)
No convention bounces in nat'l polls. Notable changes: AZ 2.1 -> Biden, FL 2.8 -> Trump
Nat'l: Biden +7.0/Clinton +3.1
EC: Biden 289-125 (+174) / Clinton 251-164 (+87)
Biden 50%+ in NINE battlegrounds, Clinton ZERO (highest 45.2%, 13 under 42%)
No convention bounces in nat'l polls. Notable changes: AZ 2.1 -> Biden, FL 2.8 -> Trump
NOTES (con’t):
1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 polling averages
2. Polls with 3rd party candidates used, when available
3. High/low turnout-hypothesizing versions of polls not used
4. Outliers (10%+ off of polling average) removed
1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 polling averages
2. Polls with 3rd party candidates used, when available
3. High/low turnout-hypothesizing versions of polls not used
4. Outliers (10%+ off of polling average) removed
Polling versus forecasts:
A1. 2016 polling *averages* were ACCURATE (≥5%), nat'l + swing states, except WI/IA
https://aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/An-Evaluation-of-2016-Election-Polls-in-the-U-S.aspx
Most election *forecasts*—which this thread is NOT—were not. 538's forecast largely matched odds from Trump’s internal pollsters at ~30%.
A1. 2016 polling *averages* were ACCURATE (≥5%), nat'l + swing states, except WI/IA
https://aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/An-Evaluation-of-2016-Election-Polls-in-the-U-S.aspx
Most election *forecasts*—which this thread is NOT—were not. 538's forecast largely matched odds from Trump’s internal pollsters at ~30%.
Deep dive into August polls available here. Next deep dive on 9/16!
https://twitter.com/NoTeamsIndy/status/1300814229679861765
(Crosstabs from one week's polls not really meaningful; also, chasing topline polling every week is also not especially helpful until about mid-October, but folks get excited, so...)
https://twitter.com/NoTeamsIndy/status/1300814229679861765
(Crosstabs from one week's polls not really meaningful; also, chasing topline polling every week is also not especially helpful until about mid-October, but folks get excited, so...)
