#Forecasts

Peter Borg-Neal

PeterBorgNeal

It is important to not be churlish and recognise that today's announcement from @RishiSunak is a useful lifeline that will provide some short term support for our beleaguered sector. 1/

Philipp Heimberger

heimbergecon

The consequences of "output gap nonsense" in applying the fiscal rules will endanger Germany’s recovery from the Corona crisis. @AchimTruger and I provide an analysis of the underlying problems: Thread

Drew Curtis

DrewCurtis

So here's a thread on how the next few weeks are going to play out... Here's where we are currently: there are an estimated three million -active- Covid cases in

Ronald Richman

RichmanRonald

Some rambling thoughts on COVID-19 modelling.Since COVID-19 began, I've seen a few different *types* of models being used to make forecasts. SEIR (susceptible/exposed/infected/recovered) models have been used quite extensively for

Simon Lee

SimonLeeWx

Because of the time-lagged ensemble approach used by the Met Office vs. the "burst" approach used by ECMWF, the January C3S update of GloSea5 only had a max. ~40% probability

George Monbiot

GeorgeMonbiot

It's now looking quite likely that Brexit will coincide with both a third lockdown and - if the longterm forecasts are correct - severe flooding. Any one of these events

Daniel Sparks

danielsparks

On market crashes: The right time horizon (long-term), an appetite for excellent and reasonably priced businesses, and a dose of optimism yield great perspective for Mr. Market's herd-like, manic behavior

Solomon Messing

SolomonMg

THREAD: 538’s 2020 election forecast design tweaks solve an important problem from 2016, but 538 has not grappled w larger issues—how they shape the social consensus about the presidential race

Adam Townsend

adamscrabble

Quick thread about carbon taxes, climate change, taxes and you. Let's begin... The free market solution to carbon emissions is to work out the cost of external damages caused by

Tomer Burg

burgwx

1/ Below is a comparison of the two parallel-running GEFS for TD 13:Left - operational GEFSv11, 21 membersRight - parallel GEFSv12, 31 members (courtesy @Weathernerds)GEFSv12 show a much larger spread

Stephanie Kelton

StephanieKelton

Short threadAnyone who has been paying attention knows that what we’re hearing from a number of economists today was laid out more forcefully more than a decade ago by those

Anthony Edwards

edwardsanthonyb

[THREAD]We're just two days away from what could be a historic snowfall (6-12") for the Puget Sound lowlands... or it could just be your typical run-of-the-mill sloppy inch or two.I

Youyang Gu

youyanggu

I know that the reported numbers from this week have a lot of people saying "I told you so", but from a modeling perspective, the rapid rise in cases+deaths in

Æx

anonyx10

My medium term view on $TSLA: 1/ Q2 was tough, w/ a month of lost production in Fremont due to Covid. At the same time, GF3 (Shanghai) is still ramping,

Rahul Bajoria

RahulBajoria_

A few points on today’s budget. Just some thoughts, in no particular order. Today’s budget marked an important departure from the government’s thought process of taxing and spending. Taxes are

The Undercover Fund Manager

FMUndercover

The key to success in so many fields is subtraction. My investment results improved significantly when I stopped doing all of the following.....1) Checking the performance of my stocks/portfolio on

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