#Forecasts

Nate Cohn

Nate_Cohn

A minor point from afar on the debates I see about the fundamentals after yesterday's Q2 numbers: the problem isn't just that the economic data is out of sample, it's

Socialist_Tipster

Eyecatcher_Pro

If you’re a healthy 21-year-old, your odds of dying from Covid-19 are about 1 in 100,000 — if you even get Covid-19 in the first place. But if you’re 21

Aaron Rutkoff

aaronrutkoff

Exxon has put what would have been one of the world's largest carbon capture projects on indefinite hold, citing strain from the pandemic. Yet the oil giant is going ahead

Jayson Gould

lordevinj

The difference between job postings & job openings is huge. Labour market forecasts based on openings aren’t useful, and don’t indicate a labour shortage unless accompanied by other evidence (turning

David Beckworth

DavidBeckworth

Regarding the Summers "overheating" comment, I agree that a large part of this recession is a pandemic-driven, sectoral contraction. But as work by @IvanWerning, M.Woodford, @alpsimsek_econ, and others showed this

Michael E. Webber

MichaelEWebber

Downside of living in a state that denies climate change: we don't prepare our infrastructure to operate in a changing climate. TX is the energy capital of the world but

Adam Kucharski

AdamJKucharski

Why do COVID-19 modelling groups typically produce ‘scenarios’ rather than long-term forecasts when exploring possible epidemic dynamics? A short thread... 1/ Coverage of modelling is often framed as if epidemics

NWS Salt Lake City

NWSSaltLakeCity

Since it's a quiet Sunday morning here at the office, we wanted go into a little detail about something interesting we're seeing in the long term forecast. Follow along with

David Paton

cricketwyvern

The MRC mid-point forecast (made on 12th Oct) was for 465 deaths / day by 26 Oct & a range of 240-690.PHE data are now fairly complete for 26 Oct

Ewan Birney

ewanbirney

A riff on data, models and intervention in a COVID world. When you don't have data, you absolutely need models - it helps you understand what could happen, good and

Tom Fowdy

Tom_Fowdy

I noted a Global Times editorial today sought to play down two forecasts of China's economy becoming the world's largest by 2028. The content of the articles did not seek

Jessica Hullman

JessicaHullman

It's election forecast time! But can we take @FiveThirtyEight or @Economist forecasts at face value? What are forecasters' goals & incentives, especially post 2016 disillusionment? Excited to share a new

"No teams" (≠ neutral) Indy

NoTeamsIndy

@JoeBiden v. Trump 9/6 UPDATENat'l: Biden +7.0/Clinton +3.1EC: Biden 289-125 (+174) / Clinton 251-164 (+87)Biden 50%+ in NINE battlegrounds, Clinton ZERO (highest 45.2%, 13 under 42%)No convention bounces in nat'l

zeynep tufekci

zeynep

Folks, stop refreshing the forecasts. The comfort you seek isn't there—and can't be. The excessive uncertainty this year–especially about turnout in a pandemic and which votes will count—makes these models

Maya Forstater

MForstater

Action Aid is now saying that the doc which I published extracts of was "shared in error" (they have also said this to me) They say they need to undertake

Matt LaMarca

MattLaMarca

We've got another couple potential wind spots in NFL Week 10, so I did a little digging... The sweet spot for unders appears to be right around 25 miles per

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