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So here's a thread on how the next few weeks are going to play out...
Here's where we are currently: there are an estimated three million -active- Covid cases in the United States right now https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2020/11/19/21573926/coronavirus-active-cases-current
On top of that, the US is currently blowing away its previous record for active Covid hospitalizations, which was around 60,000. Blew past it last week. Click for a horrifying set of graphs (updated daily) https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics
One week from today, November 26th, 38% of all Americans plan to have Thanksgiving dinner with at least 10 or more other people. 33% won't require masks. Many will stay in close proximity to each other for the entire weekend https://www.newsweek.com/thanksgiving-33-us-wont-require-masks-38-will-host-attend-gathering-10-plus-poll-1547596
Even for those attempting a safe Thanksgiving, it only takes one person to bust the bubble. How many family members do you have like this? Probably at least a couple if not several
Four days after Thanksgiving on November 29th, half of all Americans will travel home, along the way mixing and mingling in airports and on highways across the US. Millions will be Covid-positive and asymptomatic https://www.nbcboston.com/news/coronavirus/more-than-half-of-americans-plan-thanksgiving-travel-despite-pandemic-tripadvisor-says/2227665/
On Monday, November 30th, people return to work and school. Some will begin showing symptoms by then, many will not. Asymptomatic contagion spreads.
Hospitalizations lag new cases by about 2-3 weeks.
Hospitals across the US will hit max capacity.
Hospitalizations lag new cases by about 2-3 weeks.
Hospitals across the US will hit max capacity.
By December 14th, the CDC estimates between 4,000 and 21,000 hospitalizations *per day*. This is likely a low range given that we're at nearly +4,000 new per day right now https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/hospitalizations-forecasts.html
I wish I had better news but as a country we're going to walk right into this buzz saw. We were warned https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/19/936715870/dont-travel-for-thanksgiving-cdc-warns
Canada even did a dry run for us. Their Thanksgiving on October 12th. Kicked off a surge - caused by far fewer than three million active cases. Ours will be much worse https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/11/17/coronavirus-surge-in-canada-after-its-thanksgiving-is-a-warning-for-us/
Stay home.
Wear a mask.
Wash your hands.
Vaccine distribution begins soon.
Hang in there, be safe.
Wear a mask.
Wash your hands.
Vaccine distribution begins soon.
Hang in there, be safe.
We update hourly on this and more at http://Fark.com . During less apocalyptic times we cover mostly weird news but it gets pushed aside when real news gets thick. We try to keep it light, but sometimes it's not easy ( @Fark)
