[THREAD]
We're just two days away from what could be a historic snowfall (6-12") for the Puget Sound lowlands... or it could just be your typical run-of-the-mill sloppy inch or two.
I will attempt to answer why this week's forecast comes with so much uncertainty... #wawx
First of all, forecast models are spitting out totals anywhere from 2"-2' (yes, inches or feet!) of snowfall for Wednesday-Monday.
With such a wide spread of possibilities, we often go with the model with the best track record (the European model, right) with lower totals #wawx
First of all, forecast models are spitting out totals anywhere from 2"-2' (yes, inches or feet!) of snowfall for Wednesday-Monday.With such a wide spread of possibilities, we often go with the model with the best track record (the European model, right) with lower totals #wawx
First of all, forecast models are spitting out totals anywhere from 2"-2' (yes, inches or feet!) of snowfall for Wednesday-Monday.With such a wide spread of possibilities, we often go with the model with the best track record (the European model, right) with lower totals #wawx
But we don't rely on forecast models alone to make forecasts. We look at climate records to tell us more.
A typical snowstorm pattern of 500mb heights (~5.7km) on the right from Feb. 2019 versus this Thursday.
These maps tell us about the upper atmosphere! Very different!
#wawx
But we don't rely on forecast models alone to make forecasts. We look at climate records to tell us more.A typical snowstorm pattern of 500mb heights (~5.7km) on the right from Feb. 2019 versus this Thursday.These maps tell us about the upper atmosphere! Very different! #wawx
But we don't rely on forecast models alone to make forecasts. We look at climate records to tell us more.A typical snowstorm pattern of 500mb heights (~5.7km) on the right from Feb. 2019 versus this Thursday.These maps tell us about the upper atmosphere! Very different! #wawx
Again looking at a recent snowfall case (Feb. 2019) on the right, versus Thursday's forecast, we can see that precipitation was more widespread two years ago. If Thursday's weather-maker moves 50mi north or south snowfall totals could change by many inches in one location!
#wawx
Again looking at a recent snowfall case (Feb. 2019) on the right, versus Thursday's forecast, we can see that precipitation was more widespread two years ago. If Thursday's weather-maker moves 50mi north or south snowfall totals could change by many inches in one location! #wawx
Again looking at a recent snowfall case (Feb. 2019) on the right, versus Thursday's forecast, we can see that precipitation was more widespread two years ago. If Thursday's weather-maker moves 50mi north or south snowfall totals could change by many inches in one location! #wawx
Because Puget Sound snowfalls are so uncommon, we don't have very many cases similar to this one to compare to, which makes it all the more difficult to forecast.

I hope this helps clear up any frustrations with the forecast!

For expert analysis, follow @NWSSeattle!
#wawx
You can follow @edwardsanthonyb.
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