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Youyang Gu
youyanggu
One of @CDCgov's own models has tracked the true decline in cases quite accurately thus far.Their projection shows that the B.1.1.7 variant will become the dominant variant in March. But
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I've seen many news articles cite that "the UK variant could be the dominant strain by March". This is emphasized by @CDCDirector.While this will likely to be the case, this
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Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 electionor2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020Can
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The recent focus on reaching herd immunity through vaccination may be overblown.My modeling suggests that it is increasingly unlikely that the US will reach the immunity levels required for theoretical
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Wed Feb 10 Weekly Vaccination Update:New vaccinations has been stuck at 900k-1M per day for the past three weeks, while second doses have nearly tripled.New doses distributed remains stubbornly low,
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Wed Jan 27 Weekly Vaccination Update:Given no unforeseen supply issues, we estimate that the general public can receive the vaccine by April.We also estimate over 60% of the US adult
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A month ago, I reported on @CDCgov's overestimate of true infections in the US.It appears that last week, the CDC significantly lowered their estimates. It now closely matches http://covid19-projections.com 's latest
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Are high levels of existing COVID-19 population immunity in US counties associated with a lower infection rate in this current wave?This thread contains my latest findings to this question.Initial conclusion:
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A lot of people have asked why the CDC estimates close to 100M total US COVID-19 infections (28%) by Dec 1, while http://covid19-projections.com only estimates 58M (17%).I believe there are
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A CDC paper last month found that Kansas counties with mask mandates saw a decrease in cases in Aug, while counties without mandates saw an increase.Since then, both groups saw
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If we vaccinate 10 million people today, statistically 300 of them will die the very next day. Regardless if they actually got vaccinated or not.Over the next months, it's important
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Many people are unaware that the COVID-19 vaccine has significantly more side effects than the flu vaccine. I hope to see more honest discussions regarding this.Props to @Cat_Ho for her
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