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Tomer Burg
burgwx
Building on Jack's great analysis - as obs. heights in the NW US were substantially higher than modeled, one might ask how did the 12z GFS initialization account for that
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Today's forecast update for Wed/Thu:I shifted the snow axis south and west vs. the last forecast, as I'll elaborate more in subsequent tweets. Some uncertainty remains, but confidence is increasing
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I sketched out my *preliminary* thoughts impact-wise for the upcoming Wed-Thu storm. I'll discuss my basis in subsequent tweets below, but overall while I don't think there's much room for
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1/ Below is a comparison of the two parallel-running GEFS for TD 13:Left - operational GEFSv11, 21 membersRight - parallel GEFSv12, 31 members (courtesy @Weathernerds)GEFSv12 show a much larger spread
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