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Adam Kucharski
AdamJKucharski
I sometimes see people making the mistaken assumption that once a group that make up X% of COVID hospitalisations/deaths are vaccinated, it will reduce hospitalisations/deaths by the same %, even
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If you want to come up with a prior* for the possible long-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, there are two recent papers that I think are useful... (*Prior: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prior_probability) 1/ First,
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Suppose we have a SARS-CoV-2 variant that is inherently more transmissible, and another that is more likely to reinfect people who've previously developed immunity. Which will spread more easily? A
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I've noticed people sometimes use 'herd immunity' to mean 'pathogen fades to zero and stays there' rather than the technical definition (i.e. R drops below 1 because of accumulated immunity,
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These “COVID rankings” are being widely shared, but I think it illustrates why it’s unhelpful to try and precisely score countries in this way at a specific point mid-pandemic (first
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A few people have asked "do new variants mean vaccines won't work"? Important to avoid simple categories of 'works' and 'doesn't work'. Some variants may alter the extent of protection
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There's been a bit of confusion about the shape of some of the ONS modelled infection estimates, and subsequent updates to the curves - even from people who spend a
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Coverage of disease modelling tends to focuses on population-level 'what could happen next?' scenario analyses and predictions. So I wanted to highlight some early COVID-19 insights that you've probably heard
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Some people are interpreting the below study as evidence that people who test positive without symptoms won't spread infection, but it's not quite that simple. A short thread on epidemic
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Why a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would in general be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly. A short thread... 1/ As an example,
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'Herd immunity' has been reached during previous epidemics of influenza, measles and seasonal coronaviruses. But it's subsequently been lost (and then regained). What are some of the reasons for this?
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How different would the global dynamics have been if COVID-19 had instead been a pandemic flu virus with similar fatality rate? A few thoughts... 1/https://twitter.com/AmandaKvalsvig/status/1334210156071055361 There are differences between
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