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The difference between job postings & job openings is huge.
Labour market forecasts based on openings aren’t useful, and don’t indicate a labour shortage unless accompanied by other evidence (turning down work, rising wages). https://twitter.com/marthagimbel/status/1343643939207852032
Labour market forecasts based on openings aren’t useful, and don’t indicate a labour shortage unless accompanied by other evidence (turning down work, rising wages). https://twitter.com/marthagimbel/status/1343643939207852032
Because it is now free to post a job, people just keep job postings up *even if they don’t need anyone* to have a bank of CVs ready for when they do.
This frustrates job seekers who think they’re being rejected from these jobs... but they weren’t real opportunities in the first place.
Probably contributing to student debt and credential inflation as a few rounds of this send folks back to school
Probably contributing to student debt and credential inflation as a few rounds of this send folks back to school
Meanwhile, you can’t trust a corporate HR dept to forecast how many employees they need. Why? Managers don’t know and are asked to guess at the start of the year. They always guess high, because it’s easier to hire fewer than forecast than get permission to hire more.
So you have the sum of all these situations where someone said they needed 10 workers at the start of the year, hired 2, and still met all their production needs.
The cumulative effect of this leads to wildly high estimates of labour shortages with billions of $ lost to the economy, distorting everything from HS guidance counsellor’s advice to immigration & work permits…
All because people put data we know are bad into models.
All because people put data we know are bad into models.
Gov’t & academics are starting to catch on. Lobbyists turn a blind eye if it helps their cause.
But there’s no reliable replacement for the data we thought we had… people still want forecasts… and too many folks use what’s available even if it’s wrong, to make them.
But there’s no reliable replacement for the data we thought we had… people still want forecasts… and too many folks use what’s available even if it’s wrong, to make them.
