With ~700,000 people infected with #COVID19 in the UK when new restrictions came in on 5th Nov it will be v hard to get down to a manageable level by 2nd Dec.

Even if R comes down to 0.8 (very optimistic) will still have hundreds of thousands infected

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/6november2020

There are also likely to be ~2 million new infections in the next month, which will severely stress hospitals even with just ~2% hospitalised. This is again assuming, optimistically, R of 0.8. If R is higher of course will be worse. https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1324662494573568008

Like in March, govt have acted far too late. Will be difficult to get back on top of it now though if test-trace-isolate-support is reformed, and we take care indoors with ventilation and masks, we have a chance though will be very hard given sheer number of infections