<puts on Scientist Hat> Okay, vaccine news. I'm going to try and break down what's happening based on the reports. I've read three writeups of Pfizer's release and here's what is happening, as far as I can tell. 1/

Pfizer partnered with a German biotech firm. They enrolled about 44,000 people in a study. Some people received the vaccine, some received a dummy shot. Then (and the methodology isn't specified, but this is my assumption) they were allowed to go live their lives. 2/

Pfizer then monitors them for infections. Now - and this is important - they only tested the enrollees if they developed symptoms. This means that their data does not account for asymptomatic infections. 3/

What they're reporting is that they've found 94 cases among their 44K volunteers (this study has been going on for a couple of months). This 90% figure has to refer to the proportion of cases who received the dummy shot. 4/

That doesn't necessarily mean 90% of those 94 people got the fake. If the vaccine were ineffective, you'd expect those 94 cases to be 50/50 split among vaccine/dummy. If they're saying 90%, that reflects how disproportionately the cases were among the unvaccinated. With me? 5/

They haven't provided a breakdown of the 94 reported cases, but that's the only way you get to a conclusion of effectiveness, is if the unvaccinated were overrepresented in the case population. I'd like to know if they plan to test all the volunteers, symptomatic or not. 6/

It's also reported that none of the cases had become seriously ill, just that they experienced symptoms. That may be the better takeaway - if a vaccine not only prevents infections, but also decreases severity, that's a home run. 7/

If corona could be reduced to a inconvenience illness and not a dire one, that's the ballgame. We can exist with it among us, as we do with the common cold and the flu (with the caveat that yes, people do die of the flu). 8/

The release also said that they're tracking all the volunteers for side effects, most of which would manifest within two months, a deadline that is coming up quickly. They want to get up to 164 reported cases among their volunteers to feel confident in their data. 9/

No matter how you slice it, this is very encouraging. I wish I felt as optimistic that people would actually GET THE VACCINE once it's available. 10/10.