#Forecast

Tomer Burg

burgwx

1/ Below is a comparison of the two parallel-running GEFS for TD 13:Left - operational GEFSv11, 21 membersRight - parallel GEFSv12, 31 members (courtesy @Weathernerds)GEFSv12 show a much larger spread

Tomer Burg

burgwx

Today's forecast update for Wed/Thu:I shifted the snow axis south and west vs. the last forecast, as I'll elaborate more in subsequent tweets. Some uncertainty remains, but confidence is increasing

Robert Dingwall 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 🇪🇺 Reunite

rwjdingwall

I have now been able to review the Warwick model that projects continuing Covid restrictions until late next year (1/7)https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/university-of-warwick-covid-19-vaccine-impact-forecast-13-january-2021 As I su

Andrew Charlton

bertiecharlton

SEO forecasting. Some learnings. A thread... “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”This is often the case. You can learn a lot from history, so the more historical data

Jack Sillin

JackSillin

Finally got around to coding up a more rigorous version of my RAOB vs NWP analysis maps. Here's 12z GFS initialization vs reality.Of course we'd expect the 0hr forecast to

Jack Sillin

JackSillin

The tricky/frustrating part about the Mon-Wed forecast is that the feature of interest is a stalling cutoff low that gets swept up in a developing gyre.So we'll have a ~60hr

Ryan Hanrahan

ryanhanrahan

With water temperatures in the Sound near 40 degrees the strongest wind gusts will likely be just inland from the Sound. The NAM model here shows a more stable temperature

Jagjit S. Chadha

jagjit_chadha

An important and helpful thread by @EdConwaySky. If I may I will pick up his theme on counterfactuals and just state that is the standard way to think about policy

Julian Brimelow

Albatrossoar

I will not swear, I will not swear. Om.This morning's medium-range forecast from the MSC for #yegwx is wrong. Worse than that, it is fiction and contradicts the very NWP

Jennifer Jacobs

JenniferJJacobs

White House: “It’s unacceptable and breaking with all norms for Dr. Fauci, a senior member of the President’s Coronavirus Taskforce and someone who has praised President Trump’s actions throughout this

Tomer Burg

burgwx

Building on Jack's great analysis - as obs. heights in the NW US were substantially higher than modeled, one might ask how did the 12z GFS initialization account for that

Nate Silver

NateSilver538

Basically, the additional uncertainty introduced into an election forecast by COVID-19 falls into two buckets:1) It means there's a lot of *news* and economic volatility.2) It could screw with the

Brendan Miller

CubsRelated

MLB forced to sell the Dodgers when they were in +$400M debt and McCourt was taking out loans to pay his players.The Cubs are in >$1B debt right now. I

Seun Smith

seunsmith

Using the additional Jul & Aug data from the 2021 Budget presentation, my FY2020 deficit “no frills” forecast stays flat at 5.59 Tn (previously 5.62 Tn).Using the more optimistic numbers

Duncan Hothersall🌹

dhothersall

Remember when the Scottish Government was happy to cite the Centre for Economic Performance when assessing the economic impact of Brexit in 2016? Apparently the same organisation's assessment of the

Greg Rubini

GregRubini

17) how did I get these numbers?I analyzed the 2016 results,added between 10% to 15% to Trump - related to a number of factors:- Trump achievements- silent majority- honest Americans

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