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Oliver Johnson
BristOliver
I still think everything's generally going Ok on a UK national level with the lockdown, and vaccines are starting to show their hand with deaths. But there's one nagging concern
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I think the point about a vaccine effect is that (assuming there is one, and I don't see any reason why there wouldn't be)a) it would show up in every
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Quick cautionary tale. We're all desperate to find a vaccine effect. But I think there's a genuine danger that 100 people with Excel spreadsheets will find all kinds of bogus
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I think there's a big motte and bailey https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motte-and-bailey_fallacy thing going on with Zero COVID, and whenever anyone says they are in favour of #ZeroCovid for the UK they need
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A lot of people have been asking how we have managed to get R below 1 (and in fact comparable to first lockdown levels?), given that we have the new
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Said I wouldn't do the phase plot every day, but it's kind of metronomic at the moment, and we all need all the good news we can get.Interesting point on
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Thread: I want to tell you a story. A tale of two cities. This is a fairy story with no relevance to us, so there's absolutely no need to chip
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CORRECTION: I did a tweet thread yesterday which honestly went unexpectedly nuts. @arendbayer has pointed out that it contained a pretty serious mathematical error which I'd like to acknowledge and
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Been thinking about where we are, where we might be going, what effect vaccines might have and how to tell. This thread may not happen all at once, and will
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So, I reckon there's a spectrum of views on COVID. Call it the axis of smiley. In the middle, there's what I reckon is the centrist position: we don't like
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OK, since this seems to be the new "squirrel" from the #casedemic crowd, we can check. I mean, obviously people are being discharged, but how many?Times of day when this
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Corona deaths in France:- week to 3rd September: 130- week to 16th March (date of lockdown): 123But I think both headbanging "It's Only Cases Twitter" and bedwetting "Stay Locked Down
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