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Dave Wasserman
Redistrict
CALIFORNIA: may lose a seat for the first time since statehood. At serious risk in that scenario (right): LA County and #CA25 Rep. Mike Garcia (R). Not at much risk:
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ARIZONA: is poised to add a seat, its 7th straight decade with a gain. Perhaps fittingly after last decade's chaos, the commission has chosen a psychologist/life coach as its chair.
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New York is poised to lose a seat. But if Dems end up drawing the map, it could be their biggest weapon of the redistricting cycle. They could merge Stefanik/Tenney
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It's worth considering why Dems have succeeded in Georgia but failed in another state with a fairly similar demographic profile that's extremely important for their long-term prospects of winning power:
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Texas is set to gain three seats, and Republicans will likely try to expand their current 23R-13D edge to a 26R-13D edge - all while adding at least one new
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Fact: Biden won the presidency winning 85% of counties with a Whole Foods and 32% of counties with a Cracker Barrel - the widest gap ever. Here's the breakdown of
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2016 presidential results in Chicago, IL:Clinton 912,943 (84%)Trump 135,317 (12%)2020 presidential results in Chicago, IL:Biden 932,556 (83%)Trump 179,278 (16%) 2016 presidential results in Detroit, MI:Clinton 234,871 (95%)Trump 7,682 (3%)2
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Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11
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If anyone thought that Kamala Harris's addition to the ticket would boost the Black share of the electorate closer to '08/'12 levels after a major dip in '16...it's pretty clear
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In 2016, Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and the presidency) by a combined 77,744 votes. Right now, Biden is ahead in those three states by three times that margin
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Tbh, I hadn't done a deep dive into the numbers in #NY22 until today and kinda can't believe I'm saying this given what else happened down-ballot, but I think Rep.
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The first state to certify its 2020 election results? Delaware: Biden 296,268 (58.7%)Trump 200,603 (39.8%)That's a 7.6 point margin swing against Trump and a 14.2 percent increase in votes cast
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