New York is poised to lose a seat. But if Dems end up drawing the map, it could be their biggest weapon of the redistricting cycle.

They could merge Stefanik/Tenney (if Tenney's lead holds in #NY22) and severely threaten other Rs, converting a 19D-8R map into 23D-3R (below).

Upstate: under the scenario (above) I've heard floated...

1. #NY27 Jacobs (R) would be axed
2. A safe new Syracuse/Utica #NY22 for Anthony Brindisi (D)
3. A new Ithaca/Kingston district, #NY12, for state Sen. Michelle Hinchey (D)
4. All current Dem incumbents get Biden +10 seats

One other feature of this play for Upstate: Dems would put Rep. John Katko (R)'s home in Camillus in a Syracuse-less #NY24 (purple), but keep it winnable for themselves in case Katko retires/loses a primary.

Btw, longtime NY observers will recall that state Sen. Michelle Hinchey (D)'s dad, late Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D), represented a very similar Ithaca/Binghamton/Ulster district back in the 1990s/2000s.

The theory: her last name would carry a lot of appeal in the #NY12 above.

NYC/Long Island: Dems could endanger Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) by adding Dem parts of Babylon/Islip to #NY01 and Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R) by adding Park Slope/Red Hook to Staten Island's #NY11.

Under the hypothetical below, both go from Trump CDs to double digit Biden CDs.

In this scenario, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D)'s "Silk Stocking" #NY12 would be eliminated (she's 74 and nearly lost her last primary, so could retire). The Upper East Side would be given to Rep. Jerry Nadler (D)'s #NY10 and Astoria/Greenpoint would go to AOC's #NY14.

NYC closeup: majority-minority districts would be preserved for...

#NY05 Meeks (D),
#NY06 Meng (D)
#NY07 Velazquez (D)
#NY08 Jeffries (D)
#NY09 Clarke (D)
#NY13 Espaillat (D)
#NY14 Ocasio-Cortez (D)
#NY15 Torres (D)
#NY16 Bowman (D)

Btw, even though it's a Dem gerrymander, it could make a lot of NYC districts more compact: #NY14 and #NY06 would be entirely within Queens, #NY10 and #NY13 would be entirely within Manhattan. #NY08 and #NY09 would be entirely within Brooklyn.