CALIFORNIA: may lose a seat for the first time since statehood. At serious risk in that scenario (right): LA County and #CA25 Rep. Mike Garcia (R).

Not at much risk: Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R) #CA23 and Devin Nunes (R) #CA22. Full report @CookPolitical: https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/redistricting/california-2021-redistricting-preview

If CA does lose a seat, the commission is likely to axe a seat in slow-growing LA County. But even if it eliminates a Dem-held seat in central LA, that could pull surrounding seats inward, making #CA25 (right) a Biden +20 district - unwinnable for Garcia (R).

One LA district at risk of getting axed: Rep. Nanette Barragan (D)'s #CA44, which was originally drawn as a Black opportunity district and isn't performing. But she's bordered by three Dem incumbents age 79+, and could easily run for one of their seats if one retires.

Another Dem at some risk: #CA45 Rep. Katie Porter (D). If all of south OC is united in her district and she loses some of Irvine, her seat could get a lot more tenuous. In '20, she prevailed by just 7% despite a massive spending advantage.

FWIW, LA's Black population has been fading, and it would make some sense for #CA44 to be spared for parts: the commission could add Carson, Compton and Watts to shore up Rep. Maxine Waters (D)'s #CA43, which is now down to just 28% Black.

Even though CA's commission can't take into account partisanship, it must adhere to the VRA. And it could turn several existing districts into new Latino majority seats, including those of Reps. Jim Costa (D) #CA16, Pete Aguilar (D) #CA31 and Mark Takano (D) #CA41.