Tbh, I hadn't done a deep dive into the numbers in #NY22 until today and kinda can't believe I'm saying this given what else happened down-ballot, but I think Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) might be on pace to win reelection in a heavy Trump district - saving Dems a key House seat.
Per @JRosenblattTV, who has done yeoman's work tracking the numbers in Upstate NY, Claudia Tenney (R) is leading Brindisi (D) 147,890 to 138,161 at the moment.

But there still thousands of heavily D mail ballots left to count in Broome, Chenango, Herkimer & Oneida counties.
In 2018, Brindisi (D) beat Tenney (R) 51%-49% district-wide. Right now, Brindisi is already ahead of his '18 margin in Broome - which still has more heavily D mail ballots to count - as well as Tioga, which might be nearly done counting.
For a Republican to lose a Trump +15 district in this kind of polarized political environment, you have to be a truly damaged, radioactive and repellent candidate. Claudia Tenney might just have fit that bill. #NY22
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