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Joel Smalley
RealJoelSmalley
I am looking again at the rest of Europe, starting with Portugal. Exactly the same picture as England. I estimate net 1,400 deaths postponed in Spring but it would have
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COVID mortality follows a distinct pattern across Europe, from West to East, apparently determined almost entirely by physical geography and season. There is, however, no apparent correlation between severity of
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Do interventions control the spread of SARS-CoV-2? If you believe that, I think you might have a hard time explaining why every European country from Germany and Switzerland to the
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One way to estimate the extent to which endemic Autumn COVID is mislabelled or displacing deaths from other causes is to analyse the deficit of deaths from those other causes.
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There are 700 deaths in hospital every day, of which 500 are apparently COVID. So, over 70% of everyone that dies in hospital is apparently dying of COVID. Does that
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We can easily identify COVID mortality by linking it logically to syndromic surveillance data. Sick people call for an ambulance complaining of breathing problems and chest pain, they are admitted
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I have painstakingly pieced back together the National Ambulance Syndromic Surveillance System data for breathing problems, chest pains and COVID-like. The results provide the exact same insights as the Emergency
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I'd love for @BBCNews to quote their sources because I cannot corroborate their sensational news about London emergency services being overwhelmed with COVID incidents with the published data.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london
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Since 2nd Nov, there is no statisitcally meaningful correlation between deaths within 28 days of a positive COVID test and all-cause excess death. There is no signal at normal scale,
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Updated COVID situation for England, including mortality data released today. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zkE00ANmITzyXaSM-S_44ZWEJTxoUtp3/view?usp=sharing
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Updated report on England COVID. Focused on clinical data and classical surveillance systems. It's pretty conclusive that the epidemic was over in Spring, probably made worse by interventions, and most
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It's probably no coincidence that all the European regions with Autumn COVID that had none in Spring are all in the same geographic cluster. Same pattern seen locally in UK.
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