We can easily identify COVID mortality by linking it logically to syndromic surveillance data. Sick people call for an ambulance complaining of breathing problems and chest pain, they are admitted to A&E and diagnosed with acute respiratory infection. Some, unfortunately die.

During the epidemic in Spring, the relationship is very clear with ambulance calls and A&E attendance starting to rise above expectations from 28th Feb, followed by increased mortality 3 weeks later. Emergency assistance peaks on 3rd April, 1 week before deaths at almost 48k.

A few weeks later, things return to relatively normal levels until the hot summer culminating in excess deaths on 14th Aug due to the heatwave of around 1.5k.

In Sept, there is increased requests for assistance for bronchitis as children return to school and pick up a cold virus. There is no excess mortality and then acute respiratory attendance at A&E falls way below normal levels.

There is potential evidence of two local outbreaks of COVID on 23rd Oct and 13th Nov, amounting to just over 2.5k excess deaths. This leaves over 17k excess deaths unaccounted for, probably due to denial of healthcare.