I am looking again at the rest of Europe, starting with Portugal. Exactly the same picture as England. I estimate net 1,400 deaths postponed in Spring but it would have been over in 19 weeks with 3,200 deaths with no interventions.

In Autumn/Winter, with better conditions, the virsu would have accounted for 6,000 deaths, again within 20 weeks with no intervention. However, what appears since Xmas is not the same. The process implies a 43 week duration. This is not naturally self-limiting.

France did not have quite the same success with interventions as Portugal in Spring, postponing about 23% of deaths. With no intervention the epidemic would have lasted 15 weeks, accounting for 39,000 deaths instead of 30,000.

In Autumn, the new seasonal outbreak does not appear to have been mitigated at all, lasting 20 weeks as there was more immunity to combat and accounting for 29,000 deaths. Since mid-Dec though, again we have something quite different, expected to last 45 weeks at current rates.