I have painstakingly pieced back together the National Ambulance Syndromic Surveillance System data for breathing problems, chest pains and COVID-like. The results provide the exact same insights as the Emergency Dept and all-cause mortality data.
It is clear that the COVID epidemic began 23rd Feb and was over by mid-May. Peaking after 5 weeks and lasting around 12 weeks puts it right in the expected range for a virus outbreak. In other words, interventions didn't change nature.
The increase in ambulance calls from 5th July is strongly correlated with non-COVID breathing difficulty and chest pain. Coinciding with pubs re-opening, perhaps heavy drinking was an issue? Mortality rises at the exact same time and excess is more in middle-aged men.
Again, there appear to be perfectly adequate syndromic surveillance system data available without the need for COVID PCR testing. Did those tests identify the potenitally real COVID on 4th and 21st Oct? Other than that, the data suggests excess mortality since May is not COVID.
Does it look like there is a serious issue for the ambulance service? Anything like there was in Spring? Why are the newspaper headlines so scary and different from the actual data? At some point, you have to question which one you trust, don't you? Empirical data or @BBCNews?
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