Since 2nd Nov, there is no statisitcally meaningful correlation between deaths within 28 days of a positive COVID test and all-cause excess death. There is no signal at normal scale, log scale or diff-log, suggesting the two are independent of each other.
Conversely, there is strong correlation between pillar 2 COVID test volume and hospital admissions across all scales. In other words, the direction and magnitude of change are so similar that hospital admissions are arguably a function of test volume.
Given that most COVID deaths occur in hospital, by implication there must also be a strong correlation between testing and death but this cannot be empirically tested due to different admission-to-death intervals.
If COVID is not causing excess death, what is? Is pillar 2 testing driven by genuine prevalence of the virus or is testing driving the case rate and affecting the hospital stats as a result? If I were in charge of public health, I'd really need/want to know.
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