Do interventions control the spread of SARS-CoV-2? If you believe that, I think you might have a hard time explaining why every European country from Germany and Switzerland to the east got their epidemics this winter instead of last spring like those to the west?

Collectively, COVID on its own was less significant in the west than the flu of 2016/17 and now represents a very soft season indeed.

Conversely, the east had a very soft season in 2019/20 and its COVID epidemic does not attain the levels of either flu in the two seasons between 2016 and 2018.

Heralded for their successful interventions in spring, what happened this winter in the east? Maybe it was physical geography and season after all?

Data source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat . Excess winter mortality derived from summer baseline.

Here are the charts showing the additive impact of COVID for both regions.