#Forecasting

Ronald Richman

RichmanRonald

Some rambling thoughts on COVID-19 modelling.Since COVID-19 began, I've seen a few different *types* of models being used to make forecasts. SEIR (susceptible/exposed/infected/recovered) models have been used quite extensively for

Eric Feigl-Ding

DrEricDing

OMG—Biden WH just created a new *National Center for Epidemic Forecasting & Outbreak Analytics*. Just like a national weather center or NASA’s asteroid detection center (CNEOS), this will be a

Fred Destin

fdestin

1/ Beware the tail wagging the dog. Numbers you committed to your board are not your strategy.Numbers you think next round investors want to see are not your strategy. 2/

David Paton

cricketwyvern

The MRC mid-point forecast (made on 12th Oct) was for 465 deaths / day by 26 Oct & a range of 240-690.PHE data are now fairly complete for 26 Oct

ArkansasCovid

ArkansasCovid

Breakdown of @drcampatterson's comments on @maddow:Q1: Why are UAMS' models are so high (30x increase in active cases by late Sept)?A1: The UAMS forecast models are like hurricane forecasting, all

Peter Lohmann

pslohmann

Forecasting growth for a recurring revenue service business (property management) - what we've learned over the last seven years and how we're doing it differently for 2021. For property management,

Mohal Joshi

MohalJoshi

1/n) Since some have created an over the top media frenzy over a journalist forecasting military action against Pakistan in Feb 2019, I humbly submit my post on Feb 14th

Craig Schwerin

craig_schwerin

Not necessarily. Election forecasting isn't a binary thing, or else Helmut Norputh was the "most correct" in 2016 because he predicted a Trump win, but Norputh ALSO said that Trump

Jake Anbinder

JakeAnbinder

I think we probably need to get rid of probabilistic election forecasting, not because the models aren't sound in their own right but they are made to play a role

Olaf Wolkenhauer

olafwolkenhauer

The short note published with @HeikoEnderling is not a conclusion of a discussion, but a starting point. The feedback is helping us to shape our debate. 1/10 There is something

Æx

anonyx10

My medium term view on $TSLA: 1/ Q2 was tough, w/ a month of lost production in Fremont due to Covid. At the same time, GF3 (Shanghai) is still ramping,

Kristján Moore (Kris)

kristjanmoore

I want to publicly state that I think there's a 70% chance that the "British strain" is ≥30% more transmissible.Over the last few years, I've made 886 predictions on many

Fabrizio Venditti

F_Vend

You like econometrics and use "local projections" because they let you do smart tricks, like exploring the non-linear effects of large vs small financial shocks on output? New paper by

يودا المالكي

NeuroMaliki

What can engineering do for philosophy? Thread. Engineering as a discipline is often demarcated from the natural sciences. Whilst engineers remain focused on utility, application, and practicality, in their fields

Anoniem

Anoniemcrypto

1/ $POLK,https://www.polkamarkets.com/ ,(@polkamarkets)Time to write my first ever thread on a project which I think will be a game-changer in the DeFi space.A project which I am very bullish on.Polkamarkets is

Emil Dimanchev

EmilDimanchev

Wow - many popular climate models have been assuming electric vehicles will remain more expensive than internal combustion engine cars all the way to 2100. As a modeler, I sympathize

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