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Breakdown of @drcampatterson's comments on @maddow:
Q1:
Why are UAMS' models are so high (30x increase in active cases by late Sept)?
A1:
The UAMS forecast models are like hurricane forecasting, all converging on a crest in late September, early October.
Q1:
Why are UAMS' models are so high (30x increase in active cases by late Sept)?
A1:
The UAMS forecast models are like hurricane forecasting, all converging on a crest in late September, early October.
A1 cont'd:
The question is what will be the magnitude. The numbers are higher than some models because they're based on Arkansas data, not national data.
[UAMS' extensive work in Ark gives it insight national forecasters may not have. Its modeling has been prescient so far.]
The question is what will be the magnitude. The numbers are higher than some models because they're based on Arkansas data, not national data.
[UAMS' extensive work in Ark gives it insight national forecasters may not have. Its modeling has been prescient so far.]
A1 cont'd:
We have to take the models seriously and think about how we will have capacity to manage 30x the active cases we have right now. It will stretch our resources to the breaking point.
We have to take the models seriously and think about how we will have capacity to manage 30x the active cases we have right now. It will stretch our resources to the breaking point.
Q2:
How will the state manage? (paraphrasing)
A2:
We have surge plans in the state to manage a crisis to the healthcare system. The problem that Washington Rgnl faces is the outbreak is concentrated in Northwest Arkansas.
How will the state manage? (paraphrasing)
A2:
We have surge plans in the state to manage a crisis to the healthcare system. The problem that Washington Rgnl faces is the outbreak is concentrated in Northwest Arkansas.
A2:
NWA is being stretched to a tight limit. If the virus expands across rural parts of Ark, areas that have capacity now, like Central Ark, will also be stretched and strained. The challenge is what can we do to mitigate rather than wait for the tidal wave to crest over us.
NWA is being stretched to a tight limit. If the virus expands across rural parts of Ark, areas that have capacity now, like Central Ark, will also be stretched and strained. The challenge is what can we do to mitigate rather than wait for the tidal wave to crest over us.
Reposting that last sentence:
"The challenge is what can we do to mitigate rather than wait for the tidal wave to crest over us."
"The challenge is what can we do to mitigate rather than wait for the tidal wave to crest over us."
It was a short segment. Rachel Maddow asked Dr. Patterson to keep her updated and come back.
Just before Dr. Patterson joined, Rachel read a letter from @wregional CEO Larry Shackelford that was sent to the team at the Fayetteville hospital.
Working to post a copy. Sobering.
Just before Dr. Patterson joined, Rachel read a letter from @wregional CEO Larry Shackelford that was sent to the team at the Fayetteville hospital.
Working to post a copy. Sobering.
