A self-proclaimed fact checking website run by a Conservative MP & Govt policy advisor still states “Cases were not falling before the January 2021 lockdown”. They refer to 3 pieces of evidence ... https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1357281871688835072

... 1. Weekly positive test data:

Weekly data obscures the daily peak but even so, PHE surveillance show peak was in wk 53 (28 Dec-3 Jan), i.e. pre-national lockdown, consistent with the daily data. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/956709/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w4_FINAL.PDF

2. "ONS infection survey ... rose to 1 in 50 by Jan 2 2021":

they don’t clarify this is prevalence (total currently infected) which will peak much later than incidence (new infections). As it happens, ONS daily estimates suggest even prevalence peaked pre-lockdown.

3. Differences in regional case rates:

They admit London cases were falling pre-lockdown. In fact, 7-day centred ave peak was 1 Jan for all regions except WM & NW which peaked 5 Jan. Given infection-test lag, this suggests infections falling pre-lockdown in *every* region

BTW, I haven’t linked to the website as this is the one targeting named journalists, scientists & academics, which I think is regrettable. @danielhowden expresses it well ...

"I don't really think the way democracy is supposed to work is that MPs - for the governing party, no less - maintain a list of private citizens who they disagree with and their statements on a major issue of social policy." https://twitter.com/danielhowdon/status/1352719333013774336?s=20