Some people have been worried about high numbers of pupils attending schools since 4 Jan.

Children are (generally) not at risk of serious illness but concern was new variant wd cause fast spread in children, which cd then spill over to others.

We now some early data to look at.

First positive tests (7-day ave) for 5-9 & 10-14s. Allowing a 7-day lag to test, infections seem to increase during 1st part of holidays (but beware Christmas testing effects), then decrease from end of Dec. Early days, but so far looks like the decrease has continued since 4 Jan

Next NHS Covid-19 triage for U19s. Lag probably shorter than for tests.

7-day ave trend suggests infections leading to triage decrease before schools shut for Christmas, level off during holidays & then decrease again from about 4 Jan.

(Thanks to @dontbetyet for the chart)

So early indications that concerns about schools may have been misplaced: no obvious sign holidays reduced infections in children, nor of any increase following 4 Jan limited school openings.

Will this give Ministers confidence to allow all pupils back to school after half-term?