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Andrew Lilico
andrew_lilico
Then, focusing on hospitalisations & deaths, we get this. We see we get only 12,029 post-lockdown deaths - a bit less than for a modest flu season. There are quite
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I'm going to present some scenarios for how the pandemic evolves to April 6th. Only 1 thing will vary across scenarios: the R value of whatever relaxations occur on Mar-8.
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This is going to sound like mockery but I don't mean it that way: we need to try to be more understanding & forgiving of folk who are saying bonkers
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I've let the maths guide me through this crisis. That's why in Feb 2020 I warned abt a pandemic, through March I warned 100s of k wld die & the
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Is there any good reason yet to believe that CV reinfection (or vaccine-evading infection) with a new strain might be any different (lethality variation aside) from reinfection with the same
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This cannot be accepted. Even if in the end there were no way through but to accept a fall in our life expectancies into the 70s (& there would be
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On the current MRC model IFRs, once we have vaccinated the over-70s the IFR falls to 0.15%-0.19% (upper bound assumes 30% higher lethality of new variant) if vaccines eliminate 90%
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It's an AZ-EU matter, not the UK govt, but doesn't the AZ contract say (5.1) it'll use reasonable best efforts to manufacture the vaccine within the EU & distribute it
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A thread on that German AZ efficacy for over-65s finding. Everyone is going to tell you "the confidence interval is too wide to infer anything", which is absolutely correct, but
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AZ manufactures its vaccine in many countries around the world - eg in India. Why is it being proposed that AZ divert vaccine from Britain to the EU, rather than,
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Equality of opportunity is an even worse idea than equality of outcome. No Conservative should be anything other than implacably & passionately opposed to both of them. Equality of opportunity
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Well, a novitiate such as yourself might begin with this piece for Canada's National Post (this is the article that really got the CANZUK ball rolling in Canada). https://www.google.com/amp/s/financialpost.com/opinion/from-brexit-to-can
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