I've let the maths guide me through this crisis. That's why in Feb 2020 I warned abt a pandemic, through March I warned 100s of k wld die & the NHS be swamped, from April I warned relaxation wld lead to a 2nd Wave bigger than the 1st, in early Oct repeatedly said we were on

course for a 2nd Wave bigger than the 1st, supported a 3rd Lockdown, & said 3rd lockdown wldn't get R<1 (got that one wrong). I said those things cos whatever I might hv wanted or hoped was true, that was what the maths said.

Well, the maths now say that from March 8 the IFR will be below 0.2%, that hospitalisations & deaths will hv crashed to comfortably manageable levels, & if there's any more spread it will lead to relatively few deaths (no more than a bad flu season).

That doesn't mean we shld open everything on March 8. We shld come down in steps so we check at each point that nothing unexpected has happened. But it does mean those steps should continue all the way to domestic normality by late Spring (eg the end of May). That's the maths now