I'm going to present some scenarios for how the pandemic evolves to April 6th. Only 1 thing will vary across scenarios: the R value of whatever relaxations occur on Mar-8. Things that stay the same include: vaxx transmission efficacy: 50%; vaxx serious disease efficacy: 90%.

Hospitalisations lag cases by 4 days; deaths lag hospitalisations by 10 days. 88% of deaths in hospital are >70s; 11% are 50-70s. The vaxx programme proceeds at 3 million per week through to April 6. There are no additional relaxations btwn 8-Mar & 6-Apr

In all scenarios we present the impact of 8-March relaxations as an R value for today if those relaxations were introduced today. The actual R value in the model is always lower cos btwn today & 8-Mar, extra vaxx efficacy kicks in from vaxxing already done before today.

First scenario. R would be 0.9. We see this produces near-quiescence by 6-Apr. <1400 cases per day. 42 daily hospitalisations. 10 daily deaths.

Second scenario. Much more vigorous R effect of 8-Mar relaxations (eg a lot more is relaxed or the R impact of schools is much greater). R wld be 1.5 today. Cases are ~same by 6-Apr as today. But only 259 daily hospitalisations & only 33 daily deaths.

Scenario 3 is in btwn. R would be 1.2 today. By 6-Apr there are 4200 cases per day (cases are essentially stable from 8-Mar to 6-Apr). Daily hospitalizations: 111. Daily deaths: 19.

Obv we could use more ambitious transmission or hospitalisation efficacy assumptions (these are low). But even with these the msg should be clear: it's unlikely much could happen to hospitalisations or deaths by 6-Apr if the vaxxes work at all, even with non-trivial relaxation.