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Adam Ozimek
ModeledBehavior
Wanted to make a small announcement today on a couple of things. First, I have a new small business. Well it's an old small business, the oldest children's shoe company
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Only 22% of adults use Twitter. In contrast almost every house has a TV. The idea that there is some monopoly over access to the public here is really not
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Quick thread on the why and how of fiscal stimulus given the state of the economy. First it's important to understand the size of the damage. We have *still* lost
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New report alert: I have a new report at Upwork checking in on remote work based on a survey of 1,000 hiring managers. A few results to follow in this
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I think what is clear about UFOs is the “normal” explanations don’t work. For Bayesian reasons, I think natural phenomenon is most likely, even though that is not the most
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Job growth has seriously slowed in November. While still heading in the right direction, at this pace of 245k a month would be 3.3 years until we got back all
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A lot of people seem comforted by the Fed downplaying NAIRU as sufficient to prevent hiking too soon in the future, but I think this is affected by recency bias....
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Initial claims at 857,148 (NSA), largely unchanged. Continuing claims also fairly steady at 13,197,059. There's a risk we are becoming numb to numbers this high and steady, but we can't
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The jobs report came in better than expectations today with gains of 1.8 million, but it's important not to lose the headline: the recovery has slowed. Unemployment is down to
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With the small business loan plan being proposed, I am again seeing people claim grants are definitely better than loans. You cannot make this claim as a fact, it depends
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Aside from the headline findings, one issue I address in my paper is the question of whether remote work will kill agglomeration. I say no, and I cite the existence
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I wanted to offer a few more thoughts on my new report about what happens when work goes remote. A big theme is land rents in superstar cities raise pay
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